Super Bowl XLVI
Super Bowl XLVI
Christmas day is fast approaching, turkeys are stuffed, the fridge is stocked with beer, mulled wine, mince pies and eggnog, wallets are emptier, trees are decorated, snow is causing havoc with travel, and..... oh yes, the NFL PLAYOFFS ARE APPROACHING!
For the fantasy players amongst you, you're either out after a disappointing season, thinking why oh why did I draft Chris Johnson, or how was Fred Jackson not on my list, or who the hell is A.J. Green???? For the lucky few, there is still something to play for. Spending those agonizing hours at work contemplating which WR2 to start, or who to bench from your starter vs. a tough defense, or a hot player on a team that’s already safe and looking to ease back for the season. Good luck to all!
One think everyone is looking forward to is the Super Bowl. Teams are battling to get the best possible line to the big game, and here is a run-down of who is looking hot, who is not, and what it all means!
The road to the Super Bowl is simple. Firstly, you need to qualify for the post season. Each division winner gets an automatic place, along with the 2 teams across that conference (AFC or NFC) with the best record. In the event of ties, the team with the best record against their division goes through. If that’s tied, against their conference. If that’s tied, then against each other. After the 2 leagues have 6 teams each ready to rumble, the top 2 teams with the best record in the regular season get bye to round 2, while the 3rd and 4th teams are at home vs. the 6th and 5th teams respectively. The winners of each play the 2 bye teams in round 2. Then in the conference final the team with the best record gets home field advantage in the conference final, with the winner moving on to the Super Bowl. Understand all that? Lovely. Moving on....
Lets look at the top teams in each division. In the AFC - The Patriots are in. 11-3 record in the regular season, they will look to wrap up home field advantage next week with a win at home to Miami. Tom Brady is on fire again, as always, fantasy owners are happy with their early pick, and him and Wes Welker have so much chemistry, science classes are missing some lessons. The Texans are safe too, with Arian Foster and Ben Tate at RB's making the best 1-2 punch of any running based team I can remember. The Steelers and Ravens are making their usual play for the biggest show on earth, with some great defense on each team, being shown up by some hit and miss offence. Big Ben is pretty much playing with 14 broken ligaments per game, and Joe Flacco is playing his usual top 20 ranked QB, using the fantasy demon Ray Rice to carry the team through. And who can honestly finish a story about the AFC without talking about Team Tebow, sorry, I mean the Denver Broncos. Since Tebow was brought in, he is 7-2 as a starter, only recently losing against the Patriots, which is not a problem in my eyes. Denver will look to wrap up the division this week with a win against the struggling Bills, who have shocked everyone twice this season. Firstly by starting so well, going 4-0, then turning in to the equivalent of a bag of monkey wrenches. Ill bet the $50million they promised Ryan Fitzpatrick is looking like money down the drain now.
In the NFC, things are simpler. Aaron Rodgers has lead the Packers to 13-0 and a game facing the worst running team in NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs. Obviously they lost. Still 13-1 is enough to guarantee a top 2 seed, and one more win guarantees them home field advantage in every game until the Super Bowl, unless they manage to play as bad as they did in week 14. Drew Brees has thrown the Saints in to the play-offs, winning the tough division NFC South, and is on his way to beating Dan Marino's long standing record of 5,083 throwing yards in a season. With only 312 yards to go, and 2 games left to play, you are looking at a world famous QB in Brees. The surprise of the season, the 49'ers, are 11-3 and also locked in the play-offs, and battling with New Orleans for the 2nd automatic bye position. The solid defense, good running, and safe plays from their QB Smith, are making this team tough to beat. Dallas are top of the NFC East, after putting on a show to behold in November and December, with the emergence of DeMarco Murray at RB, and Laurent Robinson at WR, helping ease the pressure on Garrett and Romo. The Atlanta Falcons are showing some good stuff, trying to change from an RB dependant team, to a team with so many passing options it puts the Patriots to shame. They look safe for a Wild card spot this year, and joining them should be Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions. They started brilliantly, especially for Fantasy Owners with the QB throwing TD's to Calvin Johnson, a.k.a Megatron, at least twice a game. They cooled down mid-season, and are heating up again at just the right time. A final word on the “Dream Team”, the 6-8 Eagles, who are out of the picture denying a miracle. Injuries, bad calls, and selfish team members playing the money cost what many thought to be guaranteed Super Bowl favorites the season. Shame.
So, the teams are nearly decided, the stage is set, Indianapolis is starting to make preparations to host the huge event, and with Madonna confirmed as the half time entertainment (no jokes please), its looking to be a game to remember. So lets have a look at the betting.
Packers @ 13/8. (2.62)
Patriots @ 4/1 (5.00)
Saints @ 5/1 (6.00)
Ravens @ 12/1 (13.00)
Steelers @ 14/1 (15.00)
49'ers @ 14/1 (15.00)
Falcons @ 25/1 (26.00)
Cowboys @ 33/1 (34.00)
Texans @ 33/1 (34.00)
Lions @ 50/1 (51.00)
Broncos @ 50/1 (51.00)
These are the main players. From this, making a bet on anyone other than the top 3 seems to make no sense? Wrong. The play-offs are a tricky time for any team, and every blind squirrel can occasionally find a nut (Seahawks vs. Saints 2010 proves that point). Obviously betting on the top 3 is the safest play, the look to have the least games to play, get a bye week to rest any injuries, and generally look hotter than Scarlett Johannson on a beach. With a beer. And a pizza waiting for you.
But look further down the list. The 49'ers, who are 11-3 remember, and defending their way into every game, losing twice by marginal amounts (1 TD or less). The Falcons lost in Overtime to the Saints, and are improving their defense to go with their “firing on all cylinders” offence. The Cowboys are hot, Romo is throwing to his own players for once in December, and 33/1 is a price not to be ignored. The Texans are safe too, the worry is a recent loss to a poor team this year (Panthers), and the fact they have lost their QB1 and QB2 to injury, and are rolling with TJ Yates (who?) till their season is over. But, with the RB machine they have, can they be ignored? All the teams above them, bar the Ravens, are giving up lots of yards per game to opposing RB's, so there is a chance for them to run their way to the Super Bowl and beyond. The Lions are 50/1 have shown they can keep pace, and with all their players playing, no injuries, no bans, they look to be good at the right time.
And again, let’s finish with the most talked about player in the NFL. Tebow and the Broncos. Their defense is keeping them in games for Tebow to play like a high school starter for 3 quarters, then the best QB in the league in quarter 4. But no way can they make it all the way, past teams of such quality, beat the best teams in the AFC then the best in the NFC and will it all. No way.
But............. it's Tebow.
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